An Oil War Triggering Failing American Sanctions
Oil is not only a national resource. It is also a weapon to reckon with. Iran and its proxies know this better than most. That is because Iran is suffering from American sanctions which are opposed by nearly the entire international community.
This writing is not intended as defense of Iran. Its purpose is to clarify the totally uncertain results of sanctions. Particularly when applied through unilateral decisions. There is traditional enmity between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is in the context of "Arabi" vs. "Ajam." Its religious Islamic base is a sheer hoax. Its political motivation is a constant factor of friction across the Gulf.
Bear in mind that the parties to the oil war producing those sanctions seem to count only three: Saudi Arabia, backed by America's Trump, on one side; Iran on the other side. Trump is loathe to lose the presidency in 2020 and Iran's assets are diffuse, localized, locked and ready.
Trump's intemperate and vituperative language has become akin to a balloon of hot air. His bark has lost its bite. He believes that tough talk should induce fear. But that coinage has been devalued. While Saudi Arabia remains largely a one-product country -oil and its derivatives, Iran is a nuclear power in the making. In Saudi Arabia, Wahabbi Islam predominates; in Iran, the religious leaders have accommodated a binary system: Sharia supplemented by legislation.
The founder of modern Saudi Arabian, King Abdul-Aziz, coopted the religious establishment; the founder of clerical Iran, Imam Al-Khomein, has been relegated to photos on the wall. That is while industrialization in Iran burst forward despite American sanctions. This explains why Iran refuses even to talk to Trump. In New York City recently, President Hassan Rouhani declined Trump's call for talks. National dignity produced that negativity. And Secretary of State Pompeo looked nervous as he gave empty assurances that American sanctions might produce regime change.
In Saudi Arabia, there exists simmering Shii anger in its eastern region; in Iran, there appears to be no sectarian rumbles. Reason: traditionally, all faiths co-exist in Iran. For a long time, Zoroastrianism has existed in Iran. It was President Khatemi of Iran who was the first head of State to advocate at the UN General Assembly an inter-faith approach to world peace.
The above is not meant to downgrade the contributions of Saudi Arabia to the economic advances in Asia and Africa. The goal of this writing is to reflect on why there exists a cultural conflict between Riyadh and Tehran. That conflict underpins the oil war.
It is tragic that Riyadh has for the past four years got mired in the Yemen civil war. The flip side of that unwinnable conflict is that the Zaidis of Yemen can slug it out for a long time. Causing its affluent neighbor to the north, Saudi Arabia, to bleed for a long time. In this regard, the Zaidis are at home on their territory, while the Saudi air war on Yemen cannot bring any military victory to Riyadh. In such conflict, ultimate victory shall come to the Zaidis. They, like the Taliban in Afghanistan, are fighting those invading their homeland from within the sanctuary of that very homeland.
Now we see Riyadh's allies, the United Arab Emirates, abandoning the battlefield in Hodaidah, Yemen. From Iran, the Zaidis have the wherewithal for absorbing any setbacks for a long time. That is while Saudi oil facilities are exposed to Iranian or Iranian-inspired attacks. The Abqaiq oil refineries, the oil jewel of Saudi Arabia, are on fire.
In the meantime, Iran has been enabled by France to withstand the consequences of the economic sanctions. Macron of France has just extended to Iran a $15 billion credit. Trump can fume all that he wants. But it is he who abandoned the well-crafted oil deal with Iran in 2015.
So let us now ask: Who decides how the oil wealth in Saudi Arabia and Iran is spent. In the former, it is the Royal Family (Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is the new energy chief). In the latter, it is the cabinet which is accountable to the Iranian Parliament.
Pompeo being a hawkish evangelist and a promoter of armed conflict with Iran, sees in siding with the Saudis an American strategic choice. In point of fact, Trump's options in any military confrontation with Iran are utter failure. And where are America's allies in this losing venture? Nowhere. Trump's "America First" has become "America Alone." Sanctions, as a blunt instrument, are largely useless in forcing a determined Iran to come to the table.
At the UN recently, the man in the white turban, President Hassan Rouhani, said the following about the US: "They abandoned their obligations. We are restarting the enrichment of uranium."
Fear is a traditional Trump tool A tool that has its limits. It is useless in frightening a proud sovereignty -Iran of thousands of years of civilization. Also a victim since the 1950s to US miscalculations.
This writing is not intended as defense of Iran. Its purpose is to clarify the totally uncertain results of sanctions. Particularly when applied through unilateral decisions. There is traditional enmity between Saudi Arabia and Iran. It is in the context of "Arabi" vs. "Ajam." Its religious Islamic base is a sheer hoax. Its political motivation is a constant factor of friction across the Gulf.
Bear in mind that the parties to the oil war producing those sanctions seem to count only three: Saudi Arabia, backed by America's Trump, on one side; Iran on the other side. Trump is loathe to lose the presidency in 2020 and Iran's assets are diffuse, localized, locked and ready.
Trump's intemperate and vituperative language has become akin to a balloon of hot air. His bark has lost its bite. He believes that tough talk should induce fear. But that coinage has been devalued. While Saudi Arabia remains largely a one-product country -oil and its derivatives, Iran is a nuclear power in the making. In Saudi Arabia, Wahabbi Islam predominates; in Iran, the religious leaders have accommodated a binary system: Sharia supplemented by legislation.
The founder of modern Saudi Arabian, King Abdul-Aziz, coopted the religious establishment; the founder of clerical Iran, Imam Al-Khomein, has been relegated to photos on the wall. That is while industrialization in Iran burst forward despite American sanctions. This explains why Iran refuses even to talk to Trump. In New York City recently, President Hassan Rouhani declined Trump's call for talks. National dignity produced that negativity. And Secretary of State Pompeo looked nervous as he gave empty assurances that American sanctions might produce regime change.
In Saudi Arabia, there exists simmering Shii anger in its eastern region; in Iran, there appears to be no sectarian rumbles. Reason: traditionally, all faiths co-exist in Iran. For a long time, Zoroastrianism has existed in Iran. It was President Khatemi of Iran who was the first head of State to advocate at the UN General Assembly an inter-faith approach to world peace.
The above is not meant to downgrade the contributions of Saudi Arabia to the economic advances in Asia and Africa. The goal of this writing is to reflect on why there exists a cultural conflict between Riyadh and Tehran. That conflict underpins the oil war.
It is tragic that Riyadh has for the past four years got mired in the Yemen civil war. The flip side of that unwinnable conflict is that the Zaidis of Yemen can slug it out for a long time. Causing its affluent neighbor to the north, Saudi Arabia, to bleed for a long time. In this regard, the Zaidis are at home on their territory, while the Saudi air war on Yemen cannot bring any military victory to Riyadh. In such conflict, ultimate victory shall come to the Zaidis. They, like the Taliban in Afghanistan, are fighting those invading their homeland from within the sanctuary of that very homeland.
Now we see Riyadh's allies, the United Arab Emirates, abandoning the battlefield in Hodaidah, Yemen. From Iran, the Zaidis have the wherewithal for absorbing any setbacks for a long time. That is while Saudi oil facilities are exposed to Iranian or Iranian-inspired attacks. The Abqaiq oil refineries, the oil jewel of Saudi Arabia, are on fire.
In the meantime, Iran has been enabled by France to withstand the consequences of the economic sanctions. Macron of France has just extended to Iran a $15 billion credit. Trump can fume all that he wants. But it is he who abandoned the well-crafted oil deal with Iran in 2015.
So let us now ask: Who decides how the oil wealth in Saudi Arabia and Iran is spent. In the former, it is the Royal Family (Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman is the new energy chief). In the latter, it is the cabinet which is accountable to the Iranian Parliament.
Pompeo being a hawkish evangelist and a promoter of armed conflict with Iran, sees in siding with the Saudis an American strategic choice. In point of fact, Trump's options in any military confrontation with Iran are utter failure. And where are America's allies in this losing venture? Nowhere. Trump's "America First" has become "America Alone." Sanctions, as a blunt instrument, are largely useless in forcing a determined Iran to come to the table.
At the UN recently, the man in the white turban, President Hassan Rouhani, said the following about the US: "They abandoned their obligations. We are restarting the enrichment of uranium."
Fear is a traditional Trump tool A tool that has its limits. It is useless in frightening a proud sovereignty -Iran of thousands of years of civilization. Also a victim since the 1950s to US miscalculations.
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